A Period of Stabilization for Canary Islands Tourism
Infinite growth is simply not possible. For years, the Canary Islands’ tourism sector has enjoyed impressive numbers, a seemingly unstoppable climb to record after record. However, all indicators now suggest the ceiling is near, and what’s needed is a gentle landing—a smooth descent without major turbulence. The sector anticipates maintaining a growth trend, but at a significantly slower pace. This development is seen as logical, leading to a reassessment of the goal to close 2025 with over 18 million tourists, which would have been the highest figure in the history of the archipelago.
Current Numbers and Cautious Optimism
The region ended 2024 with 17.77 million tourists, according to data from the Tourist Movement Statistics at Borders, compiled by the Canary Islands Institute of Statistics (Istac). It appears 2025 is on a similar trajectory, though the final outcome hinges on the high season, which begins in October. This crucial period could be affected by a reduction in bookings from the German market, a consequence of the country’s complex economic situation.
“We are in a moment of regulation, a soft landing,” acknowledges Jorge Marichal, president of the Santa Cruz de Tenerife Hoteliers Association (Ashotel). “We must consider that the economies sending us tourists cannot sustain the growth levels we experienced post-COVID.” Marichal believes the numbers will be quite similar to 2024 or may even be “a little lower.”
But the industry sees a positive side. “The good news is that the sector remains robust, continues to generate employment, and significant added value has been created in facilities and Canary Islands tourism activities,” assures Marichal, who is also president of the Spanish Confederation of Hotels and Tourist Accommodation (Cehat). José María Mañaricua, president of the Hospitality and Tourism Federation (FEHT) of Las Palmas province, also forecasts figures “very similar” to last year, with improvements in other parameters. “In terms of employment and tax revenue, it has been a record year,” the businessman states.
The German Market: A Key Uncertainty
The general perception in the sector is that 2025 is shaping up to be very similar to the positive indicators of 2024. However, the true test for the Canaries begins now with the start of the high season in October, and this year it arrives with added uncertainty. On top of the geopolitical factors from previous years, there is now the weakness of the German economy. The country’s GDP contracted by -0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, triple the expected fall of -0.1%. The fear of a recession looms, and as has happened before, Germans—a key market for the archipelago—tend to become more conservative in their spending decisions and reduce travel during times of instability.
The impact won’t be uniform across all islands, with destinations like Gran Canaria or La Palma being more reliant on the German market. These aren’t just suspicions; the associations already have the figures. “I have spoken with tour operators, and the numbers for the Canaries are already down; we’re talking about a drop of 8 or 9%,” confirms Marichal. Nevertheless, he insists there is still room to correct the situation, believing the sector should not resign itself to this decline and that tools exist to reverse the trend.
Industry Perspectives on the Slowdown
The German market’s retreat is a concern not just for associations but also for individual sector executives. Nicolás Villalobos, General Director of Cordial Hotels & Resorts, confirms that reservations from Germany are showing signs of weakness. He explains that TUI Germany—one of Europe’s major tour operators—is seeing declines of around 6-7% for their establishments, noting that “the German client seems to be adopting a more conservative attitude.”
Another perspective comes from Dreamplace Hotels & Resorts. Their Marketing and Sales Director, Jordi Estalella, agrees the German market shows signs of slowing but nuances the impact. He explains that Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura could be more affected but considers it premature to declare the season a bust. “Things are moving more slowly, but we foresee a good winter,” he assures. Estalella also highlights that the geopolitical situation remains fluid, and factors like war, prices, or even relations with Russia could influence demand from Central Europe.
A Gradual Impact and a Cushioned High Season
Some business leaders downplay the immediate effect of the German slowdown. FEHT’s Mañaricua assures that if a recession occurs in Germany, its effects wouldn’t be felt until next year. “They say it will enter recession in the third quarter. We have to see when it happens and what the effects are,” he explains. Historically, he points out, the German market retracts gradually, meaning impacts would be reflected in 2026 and 2027.
Furthermore, a significant portion of the Canary Islands’ winter season is already secured, with 40% to 50% of reservations confirmed, which limits the immediate effect on tourist arrivals. This view is shared by the Canary Islands Government’s Ministry of Tourism. Councillor Jéssica de León emphasizes that, for the first time since the pandemic, German market bookings show positive figures and are being made 6-9 months in advance, reducing the likelihood of major fluctuations during November or December. She cautions, however, that potential cancellations must be monitored closely, and the real impact will be clearer to evaluate in the first quarter of 2026.
The Rise of Vacation Rentals and Changing Consumption
Beyond the evolution of international markets, another phenomenon is causing concern within the sector: while hotels maintain good occupancy levels, the restaurant and leisure industries are not growing at the same rate. Industry associations directly link this to the boom in vacation rentals, which now account for over 30% of the archipelago’s tourist beds.
“The growth in tourists is coming from that sector,” points out Mañaricua, while Marichal notes that “clients in vacation rentals tend to economize; they shop in supermarkets and consume less outside.” This trend has been observed in mainland Spain, where the summer high season has seen a market retraction attributed to both the rise of vacation rentals and price increases.
In the Canaries, however, associations insist the archipelago plays in a different league with its own unique tourist calendar and different pricing structure. Mañaricua defends that prices have only risen about 4% compared to last year—below rising costs—while Marichal summarizes the situation with an idea shared by much of the sector: “The market is wise and will regulate itself.”
